What's a Butterfly Portfolio? Graham Stephan Has the Answer (2024)

If you're tired of market volatility, the golden butterfly portfolio could be the answer.

For most investors, 2022 wasn't a great year. The stock market had its worst performance since the Global Financial Crisis, with the S&P 500 dropping by 19.4% and the NASDAQ by 33.1%. Even if you know the best strategy is to weather the storm and wait for the market to rebound, it's never fun to see your brokerage account take a hit.

Ups and downs are normally just seen as a fact of life for investors. When there's a bear market, your investments lose money, at least temporarily. But there is a way to significantly cut down on volatility with your portfolio.

It's called the golden butterfly portfolio, which is designed to be resilient to all types of economic cycles. Investor Graham Stephan shared this portfolio in his newsletter, and he recommends it for those looking for more stability. While it works for that, it also has a drawback you should know about.

How the golden butterfly portfolio works

The golden butterfly portfolio involves dividing your investments equally into five market segments. Here's how to split up your investments according to Portfolio Charts (the version Stephan shared had some slight differences, but this is the original):

  1. 20% U.S. total stock market
  2. 20% small cap value stocks
  3. 20% long-term Treasuries
  4. 20% short-term Treasuries
  5. 20% gold

This is much different than typical investment portfolios, which often have a 90:10 or 80:20 split of stocks to bonds. The golden butterfly puts much more in bonds and also invests in gold, which many investors avoid entirely.

Why is this portfolio more resilient to volatility? Stephan explains that there are only four types of economic scenarios a portfolio needs to withstand:

  1. Rising prices (inflation)
  2. Falling prices (deflation)
  3. Market growth (bull market)
  4. Market decline (bear market)

The type of asset that performs best depends on the economic scenario. In bull markets, it's stocks. When there's high inflation, it's commodities, which is why this portfolio has 20% gold. During bear markets and deflation, bonds provide stable returns.

Because the golden butterfly covers all the bases, it can handle any economic environment. It won't always be in the green, but it's highly unlikely that it will lose big.

Should you use the golden butterfly portfolio?

Historically, the golden butterfly portfolio does what it's advertised to do and keeps you from taking any huge losses. But there's one big catch: It significantly trails stock-heavy portfolios in bull markets.

That's the tradeoff for a more stable portfolio. When the market is doing well and stock-heavy portfolios are making 25% to 30%, your golden butterfly portfolio may make less than half that.

Over long periods of time, the golden butterfly portfolio doesn't perform as well as portfolios that have more money in stocks. The table below compares the results three portfolios would have delivered from 1992 to 2022. For each one, the hypothetical investor started with $500, and then invested $500 per month. The three portfolios invest their money as follows:

  1. Golden butterfly
  2. 90:10 in the U.S. stock market and long-term Treasuries
  3. Vanguard 500 Index Investor (an S&P 500 index fund)

Here's how each portfolio performed.

PortfolioFinal balanceTime-weighted returnBest yearWorst year
Golden butterfly$843,4417.64%21.86%(12.82%)
90:10 stocks to bonds$1,176,1719.30%35.22%(31.08%)
Vanguard 500 Index Investor$1,229,4239.46%37.45%(37.02%)

Data source: portfoliovisualizer.com, author's calculations.

The stock-heavy portfolios are much more volatile, losing over 30% in their worst years compared to under 13% for the golden butterfly. But they also get much higher returns during their good years. And when you compare the final balances, it's not even close. The S&P 500 fund may be more volatile, but it ends up with nearly $400,000 more. The 90:10 portfolio also performs very well.

It's understandable why you'd want to reduce volatility in your portfolio, especially after a year like 2022. But it's unwise to sacrifice long-term growth for short-term stability. If you're a young adult investing for retirement, most or all of your money should be in stocks. As you get closer to retirement, you can adjust your asset allocation so you're not as vulnerable to bear markets. You could try the golden butterfly at that point, or you could just put anywhere from about 20% to 40% of your portfolio in bonds.

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What's a Butterfly Portfolio? Graham Stephan Has the Answer (2024)

FAQs

What's a Butterfly Portfolio? Graham Stephan Has the Answer? ›

The golden butterfly portfolio involves dividing your investments equally into five market segments. Here's how to split up your investments according to Portfolio Charts (the version Stephan shared had some slight differences, but this is the original): 20% U.S. total stock market. 20% small cap value stocks.

What stocks does Graham Stephan invest in? ›

Graham Stephan Stock Portfolio: 10 Stock Picks
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (NASDAQ:VTSAX) ...
  • Vanguard 500 Index Fund (NASDAQ:VFIAX) ...
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (NASDAQ:VTIAX) ...
  • Vanguard Growth Index Fund (NASDAQ:VIGAX) ...
  • Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (NASDAQ:VTWAX)
Mar 18, 2023

What is the golden butterfly portfolio for retirement? ›

The Golden Butterfly Portfolio contains 40% Stocks, 40% Bonds, 20% Commodities. US Small Cap Value: 1871-1926: data source extended with US Total Stock Market returns. Over the last 30 years (last update: May 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.71% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.95%.

Is the Golden Butterfly portfolio good? ›

This shows clearly that while there may be short-term drawdowns, the Golden Butterfly delivers reliable results in the longer term that not only protect investments but provide growth opportunities. Drawdowns are a fact of life for investment portfolios, and the Golden Butterfly is no different.

What is the permanent portfolio? ›

The permanent portfolio is an investment portfolio designed to perform well in all economic conditions. It was devised by free-market investment analyst, Harry Browne, in the 1980s. The permanent portfolio is composed of an equal allocation of stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, or Treasury bills.

What is a butterfly portfolio? ›

This portfolio invests in stocks, bonds, and gold, allowing it to avoid significant losses in any economic scenario. Although it reduces volatility, the golden butterfly has much lower long-term returns than stock-heavy portfolios.

What 1 stock does Warren Buffett own? ›

Apple is Berkshire's largest public stock holding by far. Berkshire's $151 billion Apple stake is roughly four times larger than its second-largest holding. Buffett first bought Apple shares in the first quarter of 2016, and Apple's stock price is up more than 500% since the beginning of 2016.

What is the best retirement portfolio for a 70 year old? ›

At age 60–69, consider a moderate portfolio (60% stock, 35% bonds, 5% cash/cash investments); 70–79, moderately conservative (40% stock, 50% bonds, 10% cash/cash investments); 80 and above, conservative (20% stock, 50% bonds, 30% cash/cash investments).

Is butterfly a good investment? ›

Based on analyst ratings, Butterfly Network's 12-month average price target is $3.38. Butterfly Network has 272.16% upside potential, based on the analysts' average price target. Butterfly Network has a consensus rating of Moderate Buy which is based on 2 buy ratings, 0 hold ratings and 0 sell ratings.

What is the golden butterfly strategy? ›

The Golden Butterfly Portfolio is a balanced investment strategy that seeks to deliver steady, long-term growth by diversifying assets across multiple classes. It consists of 40% stocks, 40% bonds, and 20% commodities.

Who has the most successful stock portfolio? ›

Warren Buffett

Buffett might be the most famous investor of all. Known as the "Oracle of Omaha," he worked for and learned from Graham until the value investing pioneer retired. Buffett then proceeded to establish his own investing partnership to focus on buying stakes in quality companies at fair prices.

What is a lazy portfolio? ›

A Lazy Portfolio is a collection of investments that requires very little maintenance. It's the typical passive investing strategy, for long-term investors, with time horizons of more than 10 years. Choose your investment style (Classic or Alternative?), pick your Lazy Portfolios and implement them with ETFs.

What is the difference between permanent portfolio and golden butterfly? ›

But while the Permanent Portfolio equally balances prosperity, recession, inflation, and deflation, the Golden Butterfly tilts the assets towards prosperity with an additional allocation to small cap value.

What is the 3 portfolio rule? ›

The three-fund portfolio consists of a total stock market index fund, a total international stock index fund, and a total bond market fund. Asset allocation between those three funds is up to the investor based on their age and risk tolerance.

What is the 5 portfolio rule? ›

The 5% rule says as an investor, you should not invest more than 5% of your total portfolio in any one option alone. This simple technique will ensure you have a balanced portfolio.

What is the golden rule of the portfolio? ›

Trying to time the market increases your risk of buying or selling at the wrong time. By investing over a longer timeframe, you're more likely to benefit from trends that can support positive performance over a matter of years.

What is Graham's number stock? ›

The Graham number measures a stock's fundamental value by taking into account the company's EPS and BVPS. It represents the upper bound of the price range that a defensive investor should pay for a stock, and it suggests that any stock price below the Graham number is undervalued and thus worth investing in.

What stocks does Nancy Pelosi invest in? ›

8 Top Nancy Pelosi Stocks to Buy
  • Palo Alto Networks Inc. (ticker: PANW)
  • Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)
  • Apple Inc. (AAPL)
  • Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
  • Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
  • AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AB)
  • Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

What stocks has Jeff Bezos invested in? ›

7 Stocks Jeff Bezos Is Buying
StockMarket capitalizationYear-to-date performance as of April 11
Airbnb Inc. (ABNB)$103 billion17.7%
Remitly Global Inc. (RELY)$3.6 billion0.5%
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN)$9.1 billion-59.2%
Sana Biotechnology Inc. (SANA)$2.1 billion129.4%
3 more rows
Apr 12, 2024

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